TPP Text is Out, But Has it Already Been Approved?

It's out! The text of the Trans Pacific Partnership has been released. A Titanic fight over Congressional approval now begins in the heat of a presidential election campaign.

• I've linked the Full Draft text here.
• The Washington Post has a solid story on the early alignment of some of the politics. 
• The Obama Administration has also rolled out a new TPP web-site for distributing information (the Administration's view, of course) about the agreement.

I predict the TPP will be approved. In some ways approval is already baked into the process. It will be close, and put a lot of crass populism on display, but it may already be 2/3 of the way toward being approved.

As I noted in my last post on the TPP, there are a number of pressures pointing in favor of approving this deal, many of which have little to do with the economic merits of trade liberalization. Out of curiosity, I went back and looked at each of the last several Fast Track votes in Congress to see how close things have actually been. Recent votes have been nail-biters, but unless there's something in the text no one has foreseen, the TPP has basically already been approved.  Institutionally, Fast Track itself is a big piece of the puzzle. But in the case of the TPP, so do the Republican majorities behind the one piece of Obama's agenda they seem to like.


 1988 Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act

• "Fast Track" for FTAs with Isreal, Canada, extended through 1994 for the NAFTA and WTO. 
• House: Yea 376- Nay 45
• Senate: Yea 85- Nay 11

1994--2002 Fast Track Lapses

• President Clinton unsuccessfully tried to renew "fast track" authority but was denied by Speaker Gingrich and the Republican majority.
• Permanent Normal Trade Relations (China): Yet, in 2000, Clinton was nevertheless able to secure enough votes to grand PNTR to China, facilitating China's entry into the WTO. 
• House: Yea 237- Nay197
• Senate: Yea 83- Nay 15

Trade Act of 2002

• The Trade Act of 2002 was a deeply partisan affair wherein Democrats were opposed to much of President Bush's agenda.
• House: Yea 215- Nay 212
• Yeas 190 Republicans, 25 Democrats
• Nays 27 Republicans, 183 Democrats, 2 Ind
• Senate: Yea 64- Nay 34
• Yeas 41 Republicans, 25 Democrats
• Nays 5 Republicans, 25 Democrats

Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015

• In 2015, House and Senate Republicans, many of whom have been bitterly opposed to much of the rest of President Obama's agenda, have been instrumental in advancing his trade agenda.
• House: Yea 218- Nay 208
• Yeas, 190 Republicans, 28 Democrats
• Nays, 50 Republicans, 158 Democrats
• Senate: Yea 60 - Nay 37 
• Yeas, 47 Republicans, 13 Democrats
• Nays 5 Republicans, 33 Democrats

If the TPP wins Congressional approval, it will largely be because of Republican support. The President's party, including it's standard bearer for 2016, are largely opposed. Recall that Fast Track itself is a kind of pre-negotiation between the White House and Congress over the detailed terms by which the President even enters trade negotiations. While Congress can certainly reject the entire Agreement once the final text is presented to Congress, it is institutionally loathe to do so, especially over specific provisions. The time to reject the president's proposals on TPP was at the time of TPA.

There is plenty of politicking to be done over the TPP in the months ahead, but in many ways, the TPP may already be 2/3 of the way toward being approved.